本轮核验 ：新增 ICIMOD 10 月初步综合的解读，补齐 NDRRMA 官方英文报告和失踪信息核验程序入口。10 月 3 日统计原表的分类差异与 9 月旧快照继续保留。
问答
- 10 月 3 日报告该怎样读？
- 灾前形变能否直接当成预警？ / Does deformation establish a warning?
- 这是地震吗？
- USGS 记录的时间是哪一刻？
- 该用哪一组坐标？
- 洪水走了哪条河谷？
- 吉隆口岸灾前灾后在哪看？
- Planet 影像是什么许可？
- 三维图怎么转？
- 伤亡数字为什么还在跳？
这是地震吗？
不是构造地震。美国地质调查局事件 us7000tbwb 已审定为 M5.2 滑坡/崩塌，深度 0.0 km。信号出现于 （尼泊尔 08:37，北京时间 10:52），当天曾初报为 M4.4 地震。USGS 在 的要点写明：分析长周期波、邻近台站和卫星影像后，能量来自冰川崩塌与碎屑流，没有发生构造地震。约三小时后还有第二次滑坡信号 us7000tc90，仍是 M4.2 滑坡，时间仍是 。目录在 用卫星影像把位置估在 28.3281°N, 85.4798°E，水平误差大约 20 km。本站不把它画成第二个源区，也不和渡边冰舌 28.2877°N, 85.52723°E 或 us7000tbwb 的 28.271°N, 85.515°E 合并。us7000tbwb 本身没有改：仍是 M5.2 滑坡，。
Was this an earthquake?
No. USGS event us7000tbwb is a reviewed M5.2 landslide, not a tectonic earthquake. The signal at on 26 August 2026 was first issued as M4.4. Later analysis of long-period waves, nearby stations, and satellite images showed the energy came from a glacial collapse and debris flow. USGS Key Points updated at 18:44 UTC that day state no earthquake had occurred. A second signal, us7000tc90, is still an M4.2 landslide at . The catalog on estimated 28.3281°N, 85.4798°E from satellite images, with a horizontal error of about 20 km. This site does not draw that estimate as a second source, and does not merge it with the Watanave snout at 28.2877°N, 85.52723°E or with us7000tbwb at 28.271°N, 85.515°E. us7000tbwb itself is unchanged.
灾前形变能否直接当成预警？
ICIMOD 于 发布的初步综合（v2）在印刷页 10 报告：Sentinel-1 InSAR 于 7 月 7 日至 8 月 24 日的 48 天内测得最高约 40 cm 视线向位移。印刷页 21 同时列出尚需区分的坡体形变、冰体运动、大气与成像几何效应；它不等于垂向位移或已证实的临灾征兆，更不能直接推出崩塌时间。
报告把事件解释为岩体失稳携带冰体形成级联碎屑洪水，主导触发因素仍未确定。其引用 Hendrickx 初步模型得到的约 1.32 亿 m³ 是岩石与冰的合计估计，须由高分辨率灾前灾后地形验证。印刷页 23–24 也强调：预警评估需要检查消息的收到、理解和可执行行动，不能只统计短信发送量。更多来源与限制见官方分析导读。
Does pre-event deformation establish an actionable warning?
ICIMOD's 13 October preliminary synthesis (v2, printed page 10) reports up to about 40 cm of Sentinel-1 InSAR line-of-sight displacement during the 48 days from 7 July to 24 August. Printed page 21 leaves slope deformation, glacier movement, atmospheric and imaging-geometry effects to be distinguished. This does not establish vertical movement, a confirmed failure precursor or the ability to predict the collapse time.
The report interprets bedrock failure involving glacier ice and a cascading debris flood; the dominant trigger remains unresolved. Its roughly 132 million m³ estimate, cited from Hendrickx's preliminary model, includes rock and ice and needs validation with high-resolution pre- and post-event terrain. Printed pages 23–24 call for checking alert receipt, understanding and feasible protective action, rather than counting messages sent alone. See the analysis guide for dated sources and limits.
USGS 记录的时间是哪一刻？
USGS 审定原点是 。对应尼泊尔时间 08:37、北京时间 10:52。USGS 要点也写作当地上午 8:37。路透引德国地学研究中心（GFZ）称，吉隆监控里泥石流击中口岸大约比这个原点晚 7 分钟，和河谷传播时间相符。中方报道里吉隆约北京时间 10:30 受击，和原点对不上，当作未核实。现场到达时间以监控为准更稳妥，不要把几套钟混成一条时间线。
What time did USGS record?
USGS origin time for us7000tbwb is on 26 August 2026. That is 08:37 Nepal Time and 10:52 China Standard Time. USGS Key Points say 8:37 AM local time. Reuters, citing GFZ, put the Gyirong CCTV strike about seven minutes after the seismic origin, which matches travel time down the valley. Chinese reports of about 10:30 CST at Gyirong Port do not match the USGS origin and remain unverified. Use the reviewed origin clock and the CCTV arrival, not mixed clocks.
该用哪一组坐标？
三个点回答三个问题，不能合成一个坐标。渡边英德用 PlanetScope 加 Landsat 把冰舌崩塌定在 28.2877°N, 85.52723°E。USGS 把 us7000tbwb 定在 28.271°N, 85.515°E，来自卫星定位，落在朗塘利隆北壁约 5500 m，不是谷底流路。路透视觉核验的吉隆口岸监控是 28.2803°N, 85.3776°E。社交账号上另有相差数百米的钉子。本站每个标签只跟自己的出处，红线不把 USGS 点连进河道。us7000tc90 在 的目录估计是 28.3281°N, 85.4798°E，水平误差大约 20 km。本站不把它画成第二个源区，也不并进上面三组。
Which coordinates should I use?
Three published points answer different questions and must not be merged. Watanabe Lab placed the ice-tongue collapse at 28.2877°N, 85.52723°E using PlanetScope and Landsat. USGS located us7000tbwb at 28.271°N, 85.515°E from satellite imagery; that point sits on the north face of Langtang Lirung, not on the valley floor. Reuters visual verification put Gyirong Port CCTV at 28.2803°N, 85.3776°E. Other social-media pins can sit hundreds of metres away. This site keeps each label on its own source. The us7000tc90 catalog estimate of 21 September 2026, 28.3281°N, 85.4798°E, stays off this list. Horizontal error is about 20 km. This site does not draw it as a second source.
洪水走了哪条河谷？
碎屑从冰舌向西北落入错坚河 / 郭巴峡曲，约在 28.33°N 汇入伦德河（东林藏布 / Lhende Khola），再进波特科西–特里苏里。涌浪先打中吉隆口岸和热索桥，再向南经过提姆里、夏布鲁贝西、哈库贝西、麦隆、贝特拉瓦蒂、德维加特、加尔奇、穆格林。USGS 写碎屑流与洪水沿河约 100 km。尼泊尔水文预报部门称，涌浪进入尼泊尔后约 10 小时到德维加特。本站红线是 OSM 河谷中线，不爬朗塘山脊，也不经过敦切县城。
What path did the flood take?
Debris fell northwest from the ice tongue into the Chhochen / Guobaxiaqu valley, then joined the Lhende Khola (Donglin Zangbo) near 28.33°N before entering the Bhotekoshi-Trishuli system. The surge hit Gyirong Port and Rasuwagadhi, then Timure, Syabrubesi, Haku Besi, Mailung, Betrawati, Devighat, Galchhi, and Mugling. USGS described about 100 km of debris flood along those rivers. Nepal’s flood office said the wave took about ten hours inside Nepal to Devighat. The red line follows OSM river centreline and does not climb Langtang’s ridge or Dhunche town.
吉隆口岸灾前灾后在哪看？
在首页胶片条点开「吉隆口岸高清」。那一组滑杆用的是 Wikimedia Commons 吉隆口岸左右对照（ 上传，本地裁成灾前/灾后两张）。地点就是路透核验的 28.2803°N, 85.3776°E，不要和北面约 15 km 的吉隆镇搞混。同一口岸还有 Planet SkySat 约 0.80 m（）和 Pelican 约 0.55 m（），许可是 CC-BY-NC。三维图上可叠 Vantor 灾前和 灾后瓦片。
Where can I see Gyirong before and after?
Open the homepage filmstrip and choose the pair titled 吉隆口岸高清. That slider uses a Wikimedia Commons left-right pair of Gyirong Port uploaded on and stored here as local chips. The same place is 28.2803°N, 85.3776°E. SkySat at about 0.80 m () and Pelican at about 0.55 m () also cover the border, under Planet’s CC-BY-NC terms. Vantor OpenAerialMap tiles from 16 October 2021 and 27–28 August 2026 drape the 3D map at the crossing.
Planet 影像是什么许可？
Planet 这次危机响应影像的许可是 CC-BY-NC-4.0：必须署名，只准非商业使用。目录在 Source Cooperative 的 STAC：planet/disasterdata/nepal-flash-flood-2026-08-26。本站没有把 Planet 像素当成公有领域拷走。胶片条缩略图和 OpenAerialMap 瓦片只用于非商业对照，并保留署名。目视请用 visual 资产。灾前 PlanetScope 是表面反射，灾后是 TOA 辐射，不能直接做未校正的光谱差分。
What is the Planet license?
Planet Crisis Response scenes for this flood are licensed CC-BY-NC-4.0: attribution required, non-commercial use only. The STAC catalog lives at source.coop under planet/disasterdata/nepal-flash-flood-2026-08-26. This site does not copy Planet pixels into a public-domain dump. Thumbnails and OpenAerialMap tiles are shown for non-commercial comparison with credit. Do not treat those frames as free stock. Visual assets can be compared by eye; pre-event PlanetScope is surface reflectance and post-event PlanetScope is TOA radiance, so uncorrected spectral differencing is not valid.
三维图怎么转？
拖首页右侧转盘的外圈改水平朝向，拖中心改俯仰；轻点中心可在俯视与三维之间切换，点「复位」会回到当前地点的预设镜头。键盘：Q / E 转向，R / F 俯仰，J / K 沿河谷换地点，逗号和句号换胶片条，方括号移动对照滑杆。手机上也可以点「上一处 / 下一处」。这张三维图是 MapLibre 地形夸张，不是 Cesium 原作。要看渡边实验室的相机和幻灯，请打开 Cesium 故事页。
How do I rotate the 3D map?
Drag the outer tire of the orbit wheel on the homepage to change bearing; drag the hub up or down to change pitch. Click the hub to toggle between overhead and the 3D pitch. The reset button returns the current site’s camera. Keyboard: Q and E yaw, R and F pitch. J and K step sites along the corridor; comma and period change filmstrip pairs; brackets move the compare slider. On a phone, use the previous and next site buttons. The 3D view is MapLibre terrain, not the Cesium original. Open the Watanabe Lab story for the Cesium camera.
10 月 3 日报告该怎样读？
原表有一处尚未解释的分类差异，不能只摘取总栏数字。NDRRMA 截至 的搜救与救济报告由 NSET 提供镜像；第 5 个 PDF 页面（印刷页 4）列“总死亡”1,455，口径包括部分人体遗骸。女性 336、男性 585、部分遗骸 533 合计 1,454，与总栏相差 1；地区栏则合计 1,455。本站在 复核原文时，这一差异仍在，因此并列保留，不自行替发布方改数，也不将总栏解释为已确认的独立死者人数。
同页列失踪 5,285，已扣辨认出的遗体 112，包含外国人 636。边注明确：名册可能包括未辨认遗体、部分已获救人员和重复登记；核验中仍可能增减。这不是最终总数。9 月 22 日的 1,451（含 530 件遗骸）／5,705 保留在下方作为旧快照，西藏的独立公报也保留自己的统计时点，两侧不加总。
报告另列按分钟记录的预警和洪水传播经过。这是 NDRRMA 的事后重建；引用时保留机构归属、尼泊尔时间和原文页码，不把它写成本站独立测量的到达时间。
补齐官方英文原件：NDRRMA 于 发布截至 10 月 3 日的英文报告（官方目录记录）。本站在 核看其 PDF 第 5 页／印刷页 5：总栏 1,455、分类合计 1,454、失踪 5,285 的口径与上述尼文镜像一致，差 1 仍未解释。英文版与尼文版页码不同，引用时应注明版本。
NDRRMA 的10 月 12 日官方目录记录另列失踪人员信息核验程序，可作为名册仍需核验的背景材料。该文件不是新的统计总数；本站仅链接原件入口，没有据此认定任何人的身份、死亡状态或法律适用。
How should the report through 3 October be read?
NDRRMA's report through , hosted by NSET, lists 1,455 in its total-deaths field, which includes partial human remains. On PDF page 5 (printed page 4), the female (336), male (585) and partial-remains (533) categories sum to 1,454; district counts sum to 1,455. The unexplained difference of one was still present when checked on . This site preserves the reported figures and does not interpret that total as a verified count of distinct deceased people.
The report lists 5,285 missing after deducting 112 identified bodies, including 636 foreign nationals. Its register may include unidentified bodies, duplicate entries or people already rescued and remains under verification. These are not final counts. The 22 September figures are retained below as an earlier snapshot, and Nepal's figures are not added to Tibet's. The report's minute-by-minute warning and flood-propagation timeline is an NDRRMA retrospective reconstruction, not an independently measured timeline produced by this site.
NDRRMA published the official English report through 3 October on (catalog record). Checked on , its PDF page 5, printed page 5, retains the same 1,455 total, 1,454 category sum and 5,285 missing as the Nepali mirror. The one-person category difference remains unexplained. Printed pagination differs between the language versions.
A separate official record dated 12 October lists a procedure for verifying missing-person information. It is background on verification, not a new casualty total. This site links the source without making individual identity, death-status or legal determinations.
旧快照：伤亡数字为什么还在跳？
下面保留此前的日期化记录。新补入的报告及其统计差异见10 月 3 日报告说明。
伤亡与失踪数字仍在跳变，本站不公布最终死亡总数。尼泊尔警察在 报已寻获 469 具遗体。NDRRMA 第 6 份状态报告（）写已寻获 389、失踪 977。BBC 日文 引尼泊尔至少 469 死、失踪 910，西藏 3 死、失踪 558。NDRRMA 通报：已寻获 1,050、失踪约 3,916（含外国人 583）。NDRRMA ：已寻获 1,451（含 530 件人体遗骸）、失踪约 5,705（已扣已移交遗体 112；外国人 636）。这不是最终总数，名册里可能仍有重复。同日下午尼泊尔警察仍报失踪 4,718；拉苏瓦与努瓦科特的分区和 NDRRMA 对调了 33 人。西藏自治区政府 的快照是 16 死、失踪 546。截至 ：43 死、失踪 519（外国人 261；路透 / CGTN / Global Times）。9 月中旬的英文报道仍引这组。两侧失踪名单可能在吉隆口岸–热索桥重叠（朝圣者、司机、边检）。没有双边对账名单，不要把两边相加当成一个全球数字。
Why are casualty numbers still moving?
Published death and missing counts are dated snapshots, not a final total. Nepal Police at 07:00 NPT on reported 469 recovered bodies. NDRRMA’s sixth situation report on listed 389 recovered and 977 missing. BBC Japanese on 28 August cited at least 469 dead in Nepal and 910 missing, plus 3 confirmed dead and 558 missing in Tibet. NDRRMA at 18:00 NPT on reported 1,050 recovered and about 3,916 missing, including 583 foreign nationals. NDRRMA at 19:00 NPT on reported 1,451 recovered, including 530 remains pieces, and about 5,705 missing. That missing figure already deducts 112 handed-over bodies and includes 636 foreign nationals. It is not a final total and may still contain duplicates. Nepal Police the same afternoon still listed 4,718 missing. Rasuwa and Nuwakot counts differ from the NDRRMA bulletin by a 33-person swap. Tibet’s 18:00 CST snapshot was 16 dead and 546 missing. As of 18:00 CST on the Tibet figure is 43 dead and 519 missing, 261 of them foreigners (Reuters, CGTN, Global Times). English reports through mid-September still cite the 5 September figures. Those missing lists can overlap at Gyirong/Rasuwagadhi. This site does not add the two sides into one global number.